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The Curious Case of Production (Schenn at ES?)

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  • The Curious Case of Production (Schenn at ES?)

    I like numbers, I think the folks around here know I enjoy the stats as much as anyone. I have also been careful to say that the stats can;t be the whole story. Stats have to support the eye test.

    Advanced Stats and Metrics can be valuable tools, but they are also easily manipulated...you can make numbers say or mean anything...more often than not Advanced Stats are used to define a player and support a preconceived notion. A few years ago I had a conversation with one of the bigger stats guys in Flyers Social Media...it was an interesting conversation because the stat being used, was being used to show why a player was so bad...when I pointed out that one of the premier players in the league was only a few names above the 'horrible player' and a player on the Flyers deemed far better a few names below...the discussion stopped being about the stat and started being about the names.

    If the conclusion you're drawing from a stat can't be applied to every person on the list, the stat or the conclusion is wrong. It's that simple. If a value above or below X means...Player Smith is a bad player, than it has to hold true for everyone.

    But on to the idea of Brayden Schenn, baddie at ES, or 5 on 5. What I find curious about this is when you ask people what Schenn produces at ES they can't tell you. They'll just tell you it's bad..or that all his points come on the PP...they'll regurgitate factoids to support a bias.

    So first I am going to break down Schenn's 6 years in Philly in to two 3-year groups...the first being years 2011-12 thru 2013-14
    TOTAL 1 GP EVG EVA EVP EV/TOI EVG/60 EVA/60 EVP/60
    Giroux 207 49 79 128 3234 0.91 1.47 2.37
    Schenn 183 30 31 61 2379 0.76 0.78 1.54
    Simmonds 209 40 45 85 2688 0.89 1.00 1.90
    Voracek 208 47 59 106 2754 1.02 1.29 2.31
    Couturier 205 27 39 66 2572 0.63 0.91 1.54
    Seems like the kind of production you'd expect for a kid coming into the league...certainly not out of line with peer Couturier..

    ...and the final 3 years
    TOTAL 2 GP EVG EVA EVP EV/TOI EVG/60 EVA/60 EVP/60
    Giroux 241 35 65 100 3763 0.56 1.04 1.59
    Schenn 241 34 58 92 3331 0.61 1.04 1.66
    Simmonds 238 46 46 92 3251 0.85 0.85 1.70
    Voracek 237 36 82 118 3619 0.60 1.36 1.96
    Couturier 211 36 55 91 3099 0.70 1.06 1.76
    Schenn's goal scoring drops by little more than one-tenth of a point at ES, while his assists rise by nearly three-tenths of a point. His total point production rises a little more than one-tenth of a point. Couturier's production rises about two-tenths of a point from span to span.

    Giroux sees his goal scoring drop nearly four-tenths of a point and his even strength point production collapses nearly eight-tenths of a point span to span. Simmonds loses two-tenths of a point in the last 3 years, and Voracek over three-tenths of a point.

    So while Schenn shows growth in the last three years, and Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds decline in the same span...it somehow became de rigueur to harp on Schenn at even strength.

    What you have to ask yourself, when reading these arguments and looking at the numbers..is does the stat, does the equation mean anything or tell us anything that actually translates to tangible impact? The difference between Simmonds and Schenn in ES Point production over the last 3 years.... is four-one-hundredths of a point in Simmonds favor. Likewise it's one-tenth of a point in Couturier's favor. Schenn is seven-one-hundredthsof a point better than Giroux and three-tenths of a point worse than Voracek.

    Perhaps the problems at ES over the last few years have less to do with guys like Schenn or Couturier and more to do with guys like Voracek and Giroux, who for much of the Flyers faithful are sacred cows not to be poked, prodded or scrutinized...perhaps the problem is the chaos of multiple coaches and systems.

    Just thought folks would like to see some of the raw numbers...

    Stat heads will tell you about 'play driving' and analytics that...unless the goals/points show up on the board...are hypothetical...telling us player X is a better play driver is great...but if that play driving doesn't result in points...it's meaningless...in a conversation about production...

    Take a look at those numbers above, every player received more ES minutes in the second set, only two showed an increase in production...Schenn and Couturier.

    Giroux played 30+ more games and 500+ more minutes and produced 14 fewer goals and 28 fewer points.
    Voracek played 30 more games and 865 more minutes and produced 12 more points.
    Simmonds played 30 more games and 550+ more minutes and produced 6 more goals and 7 more points..

    Couturier played 6 more games and 500+ more minutes and produced 9 more goals and 25 more points..

    Schenn played 58 more games and 950 more minutes and produced 31 more points...


    ...it's got to be the metrics..
    Last edited by Rev_Bully; 06-26-2017, 10:28 AM.

  • #2
    My concern with Schenn was always that his play away from the puck, including defensively, was fairly terrible. I don't have stats for that, just my own opinion based on observation. A player with his natural abilities AND a good head would be a star. But, despite his production, I think over and over and over he killed far more plays 5 on 5 than he capitalized on.

    Schenn was a great producer on the PP and a solid producer 5 on 5. There shouldn't be much of a debate about that.
    "Oh, We got five. Ohhhhh."

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    • #3
      It's obviously based on recent drafts how much the Flyers value hockey sense and smart players. Perhaps they felt Schenn lacked hockey sense and that was a factor in the decision to trade him.

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      • #4
        Its not that Schenn sucks at ES scoring its that he's nothing special at ES scoring, and he often ruins the team flow. He can't maintain puck control and puts our team on its heels quite often.

        Schenn reminds me a lot of Lupul. Flashes of great skill, streaky player, not always impacting the game positively but very productive. I think those guys tend to get overpaid, since you just get paid based on points. And when you add to it the fact that Schenn's goal scoring recently is disproportionately on the PP, he could be overpaid based on his proximity to Giroux. Schenn stats took a leap once hartnell left and he got to be the high slot man for giroux. This year Schenn is 2nd in the league in PP goals and 255th in the league in ES goals. Pretty huge disparity. I think thats what Charlie et al means by "he does it all on the pplay". This year the whole team couldnt score ES so the disparity is especially bad.

        I think its better to think of it this way. Would you rather have:
        a) Brayden providing 2nd line 5v5 minutes getting averagish points and not taking care of the puck, AND also getting top pplay minutes being a top goal scorer?
        b) A cheaper 2 way forward who has a greater total effect on the game 5v5 + a separate young skilled prospect on an ELC at PP#1 mid slot and let giroux get him 10 goals? And both of those players are given time to develop the rest of their game.

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        • #5
          Giroux was 209 in ES goals.
          Simmonds was 136th ES and 4th in PP goals..

          The whole idea is silly..McDavid produced 26 ES goals and 3 on the PP.

          Lots of guys on the top 10 ES with fewer than 10 PP goals...and these are guys getting PP chances

          Sent from my Moto G Play using Tapatalk

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